Addis Ababa: Growing tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have sparked concerns of a potential military conflict, which could destabilize the Horn of Africa and worsen an already dire humanitarian crisis.
Officials from Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which has been at the center of previous conflicts, warn that clashes between the two nations’ powerful armies could be imminent. Such a confrontation would undo the 2018 peace agreement that earned Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed the Nobel Peace Prize and could draw in other regional actors, analysts say.
The risk of war follows the internal divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the group that fought Ethiopia’s central government in the devastating 2020-2022 Tigray War. A splinter faction of the TPLF, which opposes the current Tigray administration, recently took control of Adigrat, a northern town near the Eritrean border.
Tigray’s interim leader, Getachew Reda, has requested federal assistance against the dissident group, which he accuses of having links to Eritrea—an allegation the faction denies. Meanwhile, General Tsadkan Gebretensae, a senior Tigrayan official, has warned that hostilities between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out “at any moment.”
While Eritrea’s government has dismissed these warnings as “war-mongering psychosis,” reports suggest that Asmara has already mobilized its military forces nationwide. Ethiopia has also positioned troops along the Eritrean border, according to diplomatic and regional sources. Neither government has officially commented on these developments.
Former U.S. and EU diplomats have cautioned that the escalating tensions in Tigray could easily ignite a wider conflict. "The political and security situation in Tigray is like dry tinder waiting for a match," they wrote in Foreign Policy.
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have been historically strained, despite a brief reconciliation in 2018. More recently, tensions have risen over Abiy’s public statements asserting Ethiopia’s right to access the Red Sea, a stance that some see as a potential military threat to Eritrea.
Last October, Eritrea reinforced its regional alliances by signing a security pact with Egypt and Somalia, a move widely interpreted as countering Ethiopia’s ambitions.
